Sheet 1 of 3
Setup
The day before
Know what matters before the client asks.
The single thing to watch. Four questions the release will answer, each against a stated number. Four scenarios, each with a percentage range.
Locked. Never revised.
Three sheets per results event, and a published record of every call.
A company reports at seven. By two minutes past, a client wants to know what it means and whether to do anything about it. The research note is written for portfolio managers and arrives with a target price attached. What the person on the phone needs is narrower and more urgent: which numbers in that release actually mattered, whether they came in, and how a print like that tends to trade on this particular name.
That is the gap this fills. It is not a second opinion on valuation and it holds no view on what anything is worth.
It is built for high-touch desks. Low-touch flow goes through an algorithm. High-touch flow is a phone call, and the trader on it earns the order by knowing what matters before the client asks. This is the preparation for that call.
Each sheet is timed to a moment the client calls.
Sheet 1 of 3
The day before
Know what matters before the client asks.
The single thing to watch. Four questions the release will answer, each against a stated number. Four scenarios, each with a percentage range.
Locked. Never revised.
Sheet 2 of 3
Results day, before the open
07:00 release · 09:00 open · 17:30 close
Take the first call of the day with the answers in hand.
Facts only, from the release alone. Each of the four questions answered, and the scenario the release matched named before any closing price exists.
Match fixed before the close.
Sheet 3 of 3
The morning after
Know how far to trust the next one.
Graded against the official exchange close, on direction and on size, separately. Misses are graded and published like hits.
Graded on the official close.
Times are for a company reporting before the open. When it reports after the close, the Setup goes out the session before, so the desk still has a full day with it, and the other two sheets follow the next open and the next close.
Including the ones we get wrong.
As far as we know, nobody on the sell side publishes a scorecard on themselves. That is the point.
| Company | Day one close | Direction | Magnitude | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | Aedifica | +0.29% | HIT | HIT |
| 2 Sep 2026 | AUTO1 | −3.67% | HIT | HIT |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Vivendi | −6.70% | HIT | UNDER-CALLED |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Rubis | +1.65% | HIT | OVER-CALLED |
| 9 Sep 2026 | Inditex | −3.61% | HIT | HIT |
| 17 Sep 2026 | Bolloré | −0.32% | HIT | OVER-CALLED |
| 22 Sep 2026 | VusionGroup | +13.68% | MISS | MISS |
| 22 Sep 2026 | Abivax | −4.69% | HIT | HIT |
| 24 Sep 2026 | H&M | −2.02% | HIT | HIT |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Genfit | −3.66% | HIT | HIT |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Hornbach | +4.08% | MISS | MISS |
| 14 Oct 2026 | ASML | +1.23% | HIT | HIT |
| 19 Oct 2026 | BAWAG | −2.79% | HIT | HIT |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Vossloh | +1.76% | MISS | MISS |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Sartorius | +4.75% | HIT | HIT |
| 23 Oct 2026 | WDP | −0.67% | HIT | HIT |
| 28 Oct 2026 | BNP Paribas | +0.28% | HIT | HIT |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Danske Bank | +0.88% | HIT | OVER-CALLED |
Fifteen of eighteen on direction. On magnitude, eleven exact, four one range out, and three wrong.
All three misses closed higher than the matched scenario allowed. VusionGroup rose 13.68% on 22 September and Hornbach 4.08% on 29 September, both out of a contained range. Vossloh rose 1.76% on 22 October after its release matched the downside scenario, with management now expecting the lower part of its earnings range. Each is graded a miss on both rows.
One thing that table does not say on its own: we are not graded on the scenario we preferred. Each sheet carries four scenarios and says which one we think is most likely. When the release lands, we identify the one it actually matched, and that is the one we are graded on. Vivendi shows why that matters. We thought the print would be contained, the release turned out worse than that, and we were graded on the worse outcome.
The scale below is not in percent. One unit is a typical down day for that particular stock, which is what lets eighteen very different names sit on the same axis. AUTO1 closing at −0.4× means it fell less than half of one typical down day. The percentage closes are in the table above.
The grey bar is the range we called. The line is where the stock closed. inside it one range out a miss
Why every bar stops in the same place on the left. The bottom of the middle range is not a guess. It is set to the size of a typical down day for that stock. The axis is drawn in those same units, so that edge lands on exactly one unit every time.
A bar that fades out has no far end. Those scenarios read "or worse" or "or better", so there is no outer limit to them.
An open end is still not a free pass. Vivendi closed four and a half typical down days lower. That was deep enough to reach the scenario below the one it matched, so the size is graded as under-called rather than right.
Why BAWAG's line sits just outside its bar and still counts. Every range edge carries a half-point tolerance, set out in the method, with no discretion beyond it. BAWAG closed 0.29 points below the bottom of its range, inside that tolerance, so both rows are graded a hit.
Scenarios are anchored to how each stock has actually moved on its own results, not to a house view. Half of Inditex's last ten prints moved more than 4.5%; half of Bolloré's last twelve moved more than 1.6%. The ranges are built from that, so the same words mean different numbers on different names.
Direction and size are graded separately and never blended, on a rule that cannot be bent after the close. The full method is here.
Two full series, all three sheets for each results event, exactly as the client received them. Nothing is changed beyond the recipient line, the reference and the disclaimer.
The Setup and the Results sheet carry a call that is still live when they go out, so they appear here only after the print has been graded. Ask for a full series on a name you cover.
Worked walk-throughs of two earlier events, showing all three stages in sequence: Inditex, 9 September, where the call landed exactly, and Vivendi, 4 September, where the direction was right and the size was one range short.
Names are chosen for fit rather than for volume. Anchoring a range needs eight or more results-day reactions behind the stock, which most of continental Europe has, so the constraint is judgement and preparation time rather than data. The current list is European large and mid cap and it is not fixed.
If you want particular names looked at, say which. The answer is sometimes that one is a poor fit, and saying so early is cheaper for both sides than finding out over three prints.
The record above is open to anyone. The sheets go to professional investors. Tell us which names your desk covers and we will come back on fit, timing and cost.